Forecasting Spanish economic activity in times of COVID-19 by means of the RT-LEI and machine learning techniques

The main aim of this paper is to analyse and estimate the behaviour Spanish economic activity in next 12 months, by means a Real-Time Leading Economic Indicator (RT-LEI), based on Google Trends, real GDP. We apply methodologies fractional integration cointegration measure degree persistence examine long-term relationship. Finally, we carry out forecast using Machine Learning model an Artificial Neural Network. Our results indicate that economy will experience contraction 1Q-21 require strong measures reverse situation recover original trend.